ISSN: 3080-020X

October 7th – Learning Beyond Debriefing: A Topological Framework for Laying Out Crisis-Inducing Surprise Scenarios for the Israeli Air Force
Eviatar Matania

The purpose of this article is to lay the groundwork for learning from the October 7th scenario for future, unknown scenarios that may differ in their manifestation yet share the core element of a surprise attack that prevents the Air Force from realizing its full potential for at least several hours—a situation this article defines as a ”crisis-inducing surprise.” To this end, a unique methodology has been developed to move from the particular—the specific incursion that occurred on October 7th—to the general: surprise attack scenarios accompanied by an operational crisis for the Air Force lasting at least several hours. This is achieved through a topology that maps the space of crisis-inducing surprise scenarios along two axes, following the rationale of ”from where and to where”: the dimension in which a surprise incursion might occur and the primary target of the attack. The article clarifies how this topology is both suitable and complete for a learning process and demonstrates its application. It subsequently proposes the following: (1) Utilizing the proposed topology for force-design and preparedness for nine extreme scenarios, according to the rubrics of the mapped space, will enable the Air Force to be ready for nearly any combination thereof, allowing it to function semi-automatically in the initial hours of a surprise attack and thereby significantly mitigating the crisis during a future fundamental surprise. (2) In order to avoid irreversible damage during a surprise attack stemming from a situational surprise, the Air Force must forgo its reliance on early warning for the protection of itself, its capabilities, and its assets.

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Air Support in Ground Combat: Meeting Requirements or Needs? Lessons from the Israeli Air Force’s Confrontation with Two Surprise Ground Offensives
Assaf Heller  

In both surprise attacks on Israel – the Egyptian-Syrian offensive of October 6, 1973, and the Hamas offensive of October 7, 2023 – the Israeli Air Force’s contribution to halting the enemy ground forces was limited. The two cases differ in many respects, yet they share a common denominator regarding air support. The IDF’s defensive concept relied on the ground forces conducting the main defense battle, with a certain level of air support, while the Air Force’s mission was to attack targets according to requirements of the supported headquarters at the regional commands and divisional level. In both surprise offensives, the ground forces failed to stop the enemy forces. The Air Force was therefore required to assume a significant role in the defense battle, but the supported headquarters, fully engaged in the fighting, were unable to provide the Air Force with targets and intelligence in an effective manner. Both surprise offensives constituted extreme cases of the need for air support in terms of its decisive importance for the ground combat. Yet in these two unique cases in IDF history, the ground forces did not receive adequate air support precisely when it was most needed. The article argues that a primary reason for this is the failure of the IDF’s air support concept, which considered air support mainly as providing an optimal, rapid, and precise fulfillment of ad hoc requirements from the ground forces. When appropriate requests for support did not reach the Air Force, effective support was impossible. An alternative approach to air support is one that is oriented not only to optimal fulfillment of requirements during combat but also, and primarily, to force design that is optimized to the needs of the ground forces. The force buildup process should be based on a deep, shared understanding by the Air Force, the ground forces, and the regional commands of the needs in ground combat and of the strengths and limitations of air power. This approach has prevailed in relatively short periods during the history of the IAF, such as from the mid-1980s to the mid-1990s, and it has the potential to guide the future force buildup for air support. The establishment of the Air Support and Border Defense Division in the Israeli Air Force represents an opportunity to renew this approach.

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Ambidextrous Leadership in Military Aviation: A Comparative Analysis of Israeli Air Force Crisis Response During the 1973 Yom Kippur War and the 2023 October 7th Attack  
Alex Dan

This study explores how ambidextrous leadership theory explains differences in the Israeli Air Force (IAF) crisis response effectiveness during the 1973 Yom Kippur War and the 2023 October 7th attack by Hamas. Using a comparative case study approach, the research shows that commanders’ inability to balance exploitative and explorative behaviors led to failures in the initial response. Traditional military leadership methods proved inadequate when facing situations that require maintaining operational continuity while also pursuing tactical innovation. Key findings indicate that cognitive flexibility, quick learning, and adaptive resource management are essential for effective crisis response. The study highlights ongoing organizational biases toward exploitation rather than exploration, despite fifty years of technological progress. This research is the first systematic application of ambidextrous leadership theory to military aviation crisis response, adapting civilian organizational ideas to suit military command needs. Practical implications include recommendations for personnel selection, simulation-based training, and organizational changes to improve crisis preparedness.

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Integrating active, Passive, and offensive deffense: a comparative study of Ukraine and Israel (2022-2025) 
Sarah Fainberg, Yuval Peleg and Tomer Fadlon 

The wars in Ukraine and Israel have been shaped by persistent missile, rocket, and drone attacks on civilian and military targets, illustrating the return of total warfare. This article investigates why and how different states withstand aerial coercion and develops a three-tier analytical framework of active defense (interception), passive defense (early warning, shelters, functional continuity mechanisms), and offensive defense (degrading enemy strike capacity at its source). We argue that the degree of integration across these layers shapes home-front endurance, and we demonstrate this through a comparison of Ukraine, marked by wartime adaptation under material scarcity, and Israel, where pre-war institutionalization enabled rapid but at times uneven adaptation after October 7. Drawing on open-source data, policy and media materials, and interviews with officials, practitioners, and civil society actors, we show that variations in defense integration affect each case’s defense trajectory and performance. The findings contribute to scholarly debates on coercion, resilience, and adaptation in air warfare and offer an empirical basis for shaping defense integration in other high-threat environments. 

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A Conceptual Shift in the Air Force: Lessons from October 7, 2023  
Alex Dan

This article examines the necessary conceptual shift in the Israeli Air Force’s (IAF) role in land border defense, based on lessons learned from the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack. The study analyzes how these events exposed significant gaps in air power’s role when confronting extensive ground incursions through a mixed-methods approach combining comparative case study analysis with doctrinal examination. The research reveals that existing doctrine, based on separation between defensive and offensive missions and over-reliance on intelligence and static defense mechanisms, proved inadequate against sudden, multi-front threats (Lupovici, 2024). The findings indicate a critical need to transition from viewing the Air Force as a supporting element to a leading force providing comprehensive border defense responses, particularly in scenarios involving coordinated mass infiltrations into populated border areas (Finkel, 2024). The study proposes a new framework integrating real-time situational awareness, rapid lethal response capabilities, and enhanced air-ground operational coordination specifically for large-scale coordinated attacks. The conclusions emphasize the importance of a paradigm shift from reactive to proactive, comprehensive air-centric border defense doctrine that distinguishes between routine security operations and responses to coordinated military-style assaults.

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The Vanishing Enemy: Force Buildup in Israel Post Hezbollah, Hamas,  the Assad Regime, and the Campaign Aagainst Iran  
Assaf Heller and Omer Dank      

For approximately two decades, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) force buildup has relied on threat-based planning, grounded in specific threats and scenarios. This approach emerged as the risk of state military invasions into Israel diminished, while the threat posed by the Iran-led axis, including Hezbollah and Hamas, increased. Following the Gaza War (Iron Swords), a new strategic reality has unfolded in the Middle East. On one hand, the primary threats that shaped much of Israel's force buildup have significantly weakened. On the other hand, the emergence of new actors and the potential instability of regimes could disrupt the existing order and give rise to new threats. A comparable strategic situation arose for U.S. force developers after the collapse of the Soviet Union. In response to uncertainty about future scenarios, they opted for capabilities-based planning, emphasizing versatile capabilities over specific threats. This article proposes re-evaluating Israel’s force-building approach by integrating capabilities-based planning, focused on generic missions, alongside the use of specific scenarios as benchmarks for assessing the validity of force-building decisions.

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Like a Raging Storm: The Egyptian Air Force as a Key Instrument in Advancing Egypt’s Revised National Interests Following the Revolutionary Years 
Yuval Peleg and Yirmi Shifferman

The events of the Arab Spring and Egypt’s internal crises between 2011 and 2013 undermined Egypt’s standing in the international arena and affected its internal stability. Since 2014, the country has faced complex strategic challenges that include social and economic crises, regional pressures, a decline in its role as a leader in the Arab world, the expansion of civil wars near its borders, and increasing domestic threats from terrorist organizations jeopardizing its stability. Consequently, Egypt’s national interests have been adapted and transformed to ensure regime survival and to strengthen the country. This article examines how this reality is reflected in the Egyptian Air Force. To this end, it analyzes the three main areas in which the Air Force has operated over the past decade: participation in regional and international coalitions; counterterrorism operations; and force build-up with various objectives. It is argued that the Egyptian Air Force constitutes a central element within the armed forces for advancing these national interests. The primary conclusion is that the Egyptian Air Force today is not merely an aerial component within the military apparatus. Rather, it also serves as an instrument for projecting and consolidating Egypt’s power both domestically and regionally. This case highlights a broader phenomenon observed in many countries in the 21st century, where air power functions not only as a military tool but also as a strategic instrument in advancing national policy. The study aims to highlight this phenomenon, addressing the intersection between the military, society, and regional and international interests.

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Ad Hoc or Enduring? A Dynamic Taxonomy of Strategic Partnerships in the Middle East and North Africa 
Sarah Fainberg and Eviatar Matania

This article advances a dynamic taxonomy for analyzing Strategic Partnerships (SPs) in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), challenging the prevailing tendency to treat them as a generic category. It distinguishes between two intermediary forms of alignment—hyper-transactionalism and semi-alliance—and classifies SPs along two analytical dimensions: the presence or absence of strategic intent and their primary functional orientation, whether economic or security-related. A central finding of the study is the increasing prominence of air and space cooperation within MENA-based SPs. These domains function as key vectors through which global powers project asymmetric influence while enabling regional states to bypass technological constraints and expedite access to advanced capabilities such as UAVs, satellite systems, and precision-guided technologies. Drawing on case studies of Russian and Chinese SPs in the region, the article demonstrates that air and space collaboration acts as a strategic force multiplier. The proposed taxonomy provides scholars and policymakers with a more nuanced analytical framework for assessing the depth, durability, and transformative potential of emerging alignments within MENA’s swiftly evolving security architecture.

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The Role of Airpower in Battle: Some Preliminary Insights from Combat in Gaza in the “Iron Swords” War 
Assaf Heller

The operation of the Israeli Air Force in the Iron Swords War in Gaza was a departure from the IDF’s airpower concept of operations (CONOPS), which, since the Second Lebanon War in 2006, has focused primarily on the use of airpower to erode the enemy’s military capabilities while also providing support for ground troops in combat. However, in Gaza the task of aiding the ground troops became the Air Force’s primary mission, and the number of targets attacked was greater than in any of Israel’s wars to date. This article will try to analyze the roots of this change and discern what might be learned from the operation itself as to the operating concept that is best for the operation of airpower in general – and specifically the Israeli Air Force - in future combat. This analysis has shown that the operation of the Air Force differed from the CONOPS primarily because of the goals of the war, the civilian surroundings in which the enemy operated (above and below ground), and the integration between air and ground forces, as it has developed over recent years. Therefore I propose to distinguish between conclusions that apply to the operation of airpower in urban terrain and conclusions that apply to the Israeli Air Force’s general CONOPS. With regard to operation in urban environments, the article employed the methodology of comparing the Iron Swords War and the war against ISIS in Mosul and Raqqa, and presented the large scope of strikes required to support ground forces, the limitations of airpower in inflicting physical damage on enemy forces, and the inevitable harm to civilian populations. The IAF’s CONOPS must address a multitude of varying arenas that are very different from the Palestinian arena - both in their goals and in the nature of the operative environment. 

In these arenas, airpower will constitute the larger share of military force deployed, and the solution required will be based on principles from previous CONOPS, begging means and methods that differ greatly from those needed in Gaza.
 

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Not a “War of Its Own”: Offensive Air Support for the Maneuvering Forces in the Iron Swords War in Gaza Factors of Success and Looking Ahead
Meir Finkel

This article explores the offensive air support the Israeli Air Force, mainly by using its fighter jets, provided to maneuvering ground
forces during the key combat stages of the Iron Swords War in Gaza. Following a brief overview of the history of air-ground
cooperation and a detailed analysis of the developments in offensive air support over the decade preceding the conflict, the article argues
that the offensive air support provided in this war was exceptionally
effective in relation to Israel’s military history.
This success is attributed to several factors, including prewar force-design processes and training, procedural adjustments
implemented during the conflict, the extensive allocation of munitions by the Air Force, and unique conditions specific to the
Gaza combat environment. Additionally, the article suggests that the nature of air support in this war reflects a cultural shift within
the Air Force, where success is now measured by the achievements of maneuvering ground forces. The discussion then compares this
conflict with the Second Lebanon War (2006), the Gaza Operations Cast Lead (2008–2009) and Protective Edge (2014).
The article concludes with insights on offensive air support in the context of a potential future war in Lebanon, which could involve large-scale
ground maneuvers.

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The Need for Attack Helicopters: Characteristics and Challenges in the Era of Modern Warfare
Alex Dan

Attack helicopters are suitable for a wide array of defense and offense scenarios. Over the past two decades, they have been proven necessary in various wars worldwide, including the Russia-Ukraine and Iron Swords wars. However, limitations in operating attack helicopters and technological progress leading to a new variety of solutions for operational needs in the modern-day battlefield have changed the array of solutions provided. Other than helicopters, this includes using unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) for attacking and interdiction mobile targets, hovercraft assigned to ground forces for aerial intelligence and precision bombing, and other means such as guided munitions. As part of any modern army’s considerations of procurement of highly technological weapons and the need to balance the variety of arms available for achieving its war goals, this article focuses on the cost-effectiveness of the attack helicopter when compared with available alternatives as a study case for this question. The article reviews the integration of attack helicopters in modern warfare, analyzes their attributes and capabilities, and discusses the central implications of this question, including the cost of ownership, relative vulnerability, and the alternatives evolving today.

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Powered Paragliders and the Air Assault Threat to Israel
Ehud Langer

The Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, incorporated powered paragliders as a tactical element in an air assault on Israel. Gliding over the ground barrier, these paragliders intensified the attack’s impact. Despite Israel’s air superiority, this successful air assault exposed vulnerabilities within Israel’s advanced defense systems. This article examines the air assault threat to Israel, specifically from parachuting and gliding, to assess its potential impact and evaluate Israel’s preparedness to counter it. The article argues that the Israeli Air Force had not previously recognized air assault as a substantial threat and was, therefore, unprepared to respond to it on October 7. To support this claim, the article explores Hamas’s development of powered paragliders as a technological reduction strategy designed to limit Israel’s ability to fully leverage its air defense systems during the attack. It then traces the evolution of fighter deployment platforms, focusing on powered paragliders and the distinctive features that make them effective tools for air assault operations. Following this, the article discusses the factors heightening Israel’s vulnerability to such threats, assessing the country’s current preparedness and exploring the broader implications for international security. Finally, the article offers recommendations for countering the specific air assault risks posed by powered paragliders. 

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Digital Weapons: How Global Digital Platforms May Potentially Disrupt the Modern Battlefield
Eviatar Matania and Alon Berkman

The past thirty years have seen the accelerated development of global digital platforms - invested hugely by commercial companies - penetrating every aspect of our lives. Similarly to the civilian realm, global digital platforms may also be used in the military dimension, in which case we will term the battlefield-adapted product Digital Weaponry. These kinds of weapons are usually civilian platforms which have undergone software adaptations and military adjustments in areas such as navigation, intelligence, communications, sensing and warning, psychological warfare, and virtual attacks. The cutting-edge technology on which these apps are based, combined with the simplicity and minimal cost of converting them from the civilian to the military realms, is what lies at the foundation of their potential to wield systematic influence on the battlefield.

Clayton Christensen’s theory on disruptive innovation (Christensen, 1997), its adaptation to the military arena by Gautam Mukunda (Mukunda, 2010), and the test cases of the Russia-Ukraine war and the Swords of Iron War between Israel and Hamas in Gaza enabled us to examine how digital weapons have penetrated the modern battlefield, as well as their potential impact on this battlefield and on the global balance of military power. We point out that digital weapons could potentially constitute disruptive innovation on the military battlefield; that it is highly likely that the first actors likely to develop and use it in a transformative way on the battlefield will be low-resource organizations, rather than large and technologically superior military-security establishments; and that due to the convergence of these two trends, digital weaponry has the potential to lead to a certain shift of the global balance of power between military powers with technological supremacy, and terrorist organizations or small countries - at least in several aspects of the modern battlefield.

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